Congress’ approval rating continues at a subterranean level.
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Fox News 1/23/18 | 15% | 70% |
| CNN 1/18/18 | 16% | 78% |
| CBS News 1/16/18 | 18% | 75% |
| Quinnipiac 1/16/18 | 16% | 78% |
| Quinnipiac 12/4/17 | 12% | 80% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 11/28/17 | 19% | 69% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 10/31/17 | 22% | 69% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 9/26/17 | 20% | 69% |
| Monmouth 9/19/17 | 15% | 73% |
| Fox News 8/29/17 | 15% | 74% |
| Quinnipiac 8/23/17 | 10% | 83% |
| CBS News 8/6/17 | 19% | 73% |
| CNN/ORC 4/25/17 | 22% | 75% |
| Quinnipiac 3/6/17 | 18% | 20% |
| NBC/WSJ 2/22/17 | 29% | 60% |
Of people who are registered to vote and certain to vote in 2018, 54% say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidates and 39% say they will support the Republican candidates. Non-whites favor the Democrat in their congressional district by a 59 point margin. The same is true of 64% of women, and 51% of independents. [WP/ABC, 1/18/18]
There is a general preference for a Congress controlled by Democrats as opposed to Republicans by 49% to 43%. This six point spread is down from a positive Democrat spread of 11 points found in December. [NBC/WSJ, 1/18/18]
Prospects for a Democratic takeover of the House is improving but it is far from guaranteed. One obstacle Democrats face is that their primary message seems to be opposition to Donald Trump.
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
The House of Representatives
- Democrats 195
- Republicans 240
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Safe in 2017 | 174 | 175 |
| Likely | 11 | 26 |
| Lean | 9 | 20 |
| Tossup | 4 | 16 |
The Senate
The average U.S. Senator’s approval rating dropped 6% points between the 1st and 4th quarter, 52% to 46%, and disapproval went up 2% points from 30% to 32%. [Morning Consult Q4 – 2017 Ratings]
The number after the name of incumbent Senators up for election in 2018 reflects the drop in their approval ratings from the beginning to the end of 2017.
[WW used a combination of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to create the Senate chart below with Sabato as a tie breaker.]
- Republicans 51
- Democrats 47
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2018 | 23 | 43 |
| Safe in 2018 | 14 | 5 |
| Likely | 6 King Menendez (-16) Tester (- 18) Casey (-9) Smith – (appoint 1/4/18) Baldwin (-6) |
1 Tennessee (open) |
| Lean | 3 Brown (-6) Nelson (-8) Heitikamp (-8) |
0 |
| Toss-Ups | 3 Donnelly (-6) McCaskill (-8) Manchin (8) |
2 Heller (-9) Arizona (open) |